US forces are set to vacate their remaining bases in Iraq by Wednesday, closing out a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion and marking a moment Iran-aligned factions are already hailing as a triumph.
The pullout leaves behind a security vacuum that analysts warn could benefit both Tehran’s regional allies and a resurgent Islamic State.
The withdrawal was approved by the new U.S. administration and is being implemented now in the Trump administration, despite the ongoing war with Iran in the region.
More than 4,500 soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq in the long-drawn-out war starting in 2003 when the Coalition led by President George W. Bush dislodged Saddam Hussein’s regime. They returned to Iraq several years later to defeat the Islamic State in 2014–2017.
The Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli believes that Tehran will benefit significantly from the departure of U.S. troops. The expert thinks that the Iranian military groups in Iraq will exploit it to expand their influence.
According to him, they would announce the withdrawal as a victory and strengthen their position in the capital, where they are ready to take over security and political power.
That sentiment was echoed by Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella network of Iran-aligned armed factions, who framed the American exit as a historic defeat for Washington’s project in the country and a vindication of the resistance movement.
Security officials, however, are sounding alarms over the departure’s other consequence: a possible opening for the Islamic State to rebuild.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said sleeper cells linked to the group have shown increased activity in recent weeks, coinciding with news of the coalition’s exit, which he believes has lifted militant morale.
A senior security official in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk warned the group is looking to demonstrate it remains capable of carrying out deadly attacks.
In Falluja, once a stronghold of anti-US resistance, residents say they are anxious about what comes next as the last foreign troops prepare to leave.
